Prediction – GE will replace the oil companies as the main provider of transportation fuel by becoming a force within the hydrogen industry

(Note: To learn more about hydrogen fuel cell cars and their potential to solve the oil crisis, please read the series of articles titled “Twelve Hydrogen Facts” which is part of the Hydrogen Manhattan Project.)

Many years ago, I heard Oprah Winfrey say “You should believe people when they show you who they are the first time.”  Since companies are made up of people, this also applies to them.

The oil companies have shown us exactly who they are time and time again.  They are truly amazing when it comes to finding, distributing, and refining oil.  But they are absolutely terrible when it comes to developing alternatives to oil.

Furthermore, all of the talk about what oil companies should be doing has not changed them one bit.  And don’t believe the commercials you see on TV from some of them which makes it look like they are making a serious commitment to alternatives to oil.  Hydrogen will be the next transportation fuel and the oil companies are barely involved in the industry outside of the facade of putting up large exhibits at conventions.

For example, GM has been working with Shell in order to get the fueling stations built to provide hydrogen for the Chevy Equinox hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that are part of the Project Driveway demonstration program.  GM delivered the fuel cell vehicles, but Shell did not keep their promise to build the hydrogen fueling stations.  Therefore, GM had to pay for temporary hydrogen fueling stations, so the customers driving the Chevy Equinox hydrogen fuel cell vehicles would have a place to refuel.

Clearly, Shell and the oil companies have no interest in funding the replacement for oil.

The beauty of capitalism is that others can take advantage of the situation and become leaders within the hydrogen industry.  But who will step up and seize the opportunity?

When I think about this, the company that keeps popping up in my head is GE.

GE is one of the top companies in the world.  They hire people who are very talented and manage them extremely well.  Nearly every time I have come across a GE employee, I have been impressed.  GE employees are very professional and come across as winners.  The performance of the company validates this.

Furthermore, unlike the oil companies, GE does not have a psychological addiction to fossil fuels.  Hydrogen would fit very well into the company’s ecomagination program.  GE has already done really well in the area of clean energy with GE Wind which was bought from Enron back in 2002.  The company also has a very promising electrolyzer technology.  These two technologies will provide a good foundation for getting involved a lot more with hydrogen.

However, at this point, GE definitely does not “get it” when it comes to understanding that the revolution with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is on the verge of beginning (see Hydrogen Fact #1 – Hydrogen cars are just about ready to be commercialized, but the hydrogen fueling infrastructure needs to be built).

Once the people at GE learn the facts, I believe they will seize the opportunity and become a force within the hydrogen industry.  This will be done by acquiring companies and technologies in the area of hydrogen infrastructure.

The global market for hydrogen fueling stations and hydrogen pipelines will be in the trillions of dollars over the next 10-15 years during the transition from oil to hydrogen as the dominant transportation fuel.  GE loves large growth opportunities where they can be the leader and this certainly applies with hydrogen.  I believe the company will get involved in most aspects of hydrogen.  However, a couple of areas where GE might not get involved are in the ultra-competitive business of operating the fueling stations and delivering the hydrogen to fueling stations in trucks.

GE currently has no expertise in building hydrogen fueling stations or laying and operating hydrogen pipelines.  Therefore, they must obtain this expertise.  This could be done by acquiring the companies Air Products and Smart Pipe.

Air Products is one of the top hydrogen infrastructure companies and has a tremendous amount of experience in producing, storing, and delivering hydrogen.  They also have a lot of experience in building hydrogen fueling stations.  Air Products has many other business units and GE could sell these after the company is purchased (or GE could just buy the hydrogen division from Air Products if that would be easier).

Smart Pipe is a start-up company based in Houston, Texas that has a portable factory technology (see pictures of this fascinating technology in pages 6-20 in the following link) for restoring damaged pipelines.  The portable factory technology can be used for laying polymer hydrogen pipelines.

Furthermore, GE will need to hire people with expertise in operating long-distance pipelines.  And the best polymer hydrogen pipeline technology will need to be licensed.

Once this is done, GE would be involved in producing the hydrogen with their wind turbines and electrolyzers, laying and operating the hydrogen pipelines, and building the hydrogen fueling stations.

This is a multi-trillion dollar opportunity that is perfect for GE.  And that is why I predict it won’t be long before GE Wind will be joined by GE Hydrogen.